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Opportunity has arrived to lower your interest rates, please contact me if you have an questions.

Mortgage Bonds are trading higher and off of their worst levels seen in earlier trading.

Yesterday, the Fed's Policy Statement was rather downbeat on the economy to say the least…but there were no hints of a QE3 on the near-term horizon. However, in an unprecedented move, the Fed expanded on their current mantra of keeping low rates for an "extended period" of time by saying yesterday they will keep rates low until AT LEAST mid-2013...that's two more years!

The Fed knows how important their words are…and the reaction to the Statement was volatile. Bonds, on the downbeat economic assessment and lack of QE3, rallied sharply higher. After Stocks had moved lower on the initial gloom of the Statement, they proceeded to explode higher into the close with a late day 650 point rally, finishing the day up 430 points from the open. Why? Traders had time to mull over the statement…and words from the Fed on low rates for two years is reasonably good news, prompting the rapid turn around in Stocks.

So far this morning, Stocks are giving up some of those beefy gains, with Bonds being the beneficiary.

With the downgrade done and default avoided, we now must pay close attention to the incoming economic data and news out of Europe...both of which have been weak and uncertain, and giving further reason for the rise in US Bonds, as global investors seek a safe haven.

Rates are now firmly in a place where many people could benefit from a refinance. Share with your clients and referral partners that because the Fed is going to keep the Fed Funds Rates at 0% for the next two years, home loan rates are not likely to shoot up either…but at the same time that doesn't mean that home loan rates are going to get much lower.

Inflation readings will be key to watch. The Fed has said it will moderate and that the rise in inflation is transitory. If that is the case, a deflationary or low inflation environment will support low rates. However, should the current rise in Core CPI continue, currently at 1.6% year over year…rates (including home loan rates) will have to gradually rise as well.

Additionally: we must also remember the volatile reaction lower in Bonds to the better than expected Jobs Report - further evidence that things can change quickly.

At 1pm ET, the Treasury will sell $24B in 10-Year Notes. Yesterday's 3-year auction was very well received and helped Bonds pop higher. Stay tuned to the market news and market text for the numbers and reaction.




Posted by on August 10th, 2011 10:18 AMPost a Comment (0)

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